2024年1月，中華民國就將選出新任總統，面對台海現狀詭譎、美中對抗態勢嚴峻，這位新任領導人要將台灣人民帶往何處？台海和平是否愈來愈不可得？國人對外在環境應該要有怎麼樣的認識？為此，遠見‧天下文化事業群特地邀請美國在台協會前理事主席卜睿哲（Richard Bush）訪台，於3月20日舉辦論壇，針對美中台三方關係發表專題演說，供讀者與執政者參考。
Introduction
Dr. Charles Kao, Ms. Cora Wang, distinguished guests, dear friends, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon!
引言
高希均教授、王力行女士、各位嘉賓、親愛的朋友、女士們、先生們，大家好！
I am immensely pleased to be making my first visit to Taiwan after three and a half years. It is the longest time I have gone without a visit in three or four decades. COVID has many sad consequences, and one was that it was not safe for friends to see friends face to face. Zoom was an inadequate substitute.
相隔三年半後得以再次造訪台灣，我感到非常高興，這是過去三、四十年來，無法造訪台灣間隔最久的一次。新冠疫情造成許多令人難過的後果，其中之一，就是朋友們在不安全情況下無法面對面，就算有Zoom，也無法代替。
In addition, because COVID prevented me from traveling here for a long time, there are friends I will not be able to see because they have passed away. I think of Ambassador Shen Lyu-shu, Dr. Lee Ying-yuan, and my dear friend, Dr. Chu Yun-han. On Friday, I do plan to visit Dr. Chu’s great achievement, the Chiang Chi-kuo Presidential Library.
此外，由於疫情關係，讓我很長一段時間無法來台，部分朋友我未能見到面，因為他們已經不幸去世。我想起了沈呂巡大使、李應元博士和我親愛的朋友朱雲漢博士。星期五（3月24日），我計劃前往參觀朱博士的偉大成就：蔣經國總統圖書館。
I am deeply grateful to Dr. Charles Kao and Global Views/Commonwealth Publishing Group for hosting this event today. And even more for publishing the Chinese-language edition of my book, Difficult Choices: Taiwan’s Quest for Security and the Good Life. Dr. Kao, I can assure you that the Chinese-language edition is selling much better than the English edition.
我深深感謝高教授和遠見天下文化集團今天（3月20日）舉辦這個活動，更感謝他們出版了《艱難的決擇：台灣對安全與美好生活的追求》的中文版。高教授，我可以向您保證，中文版的銷量要比英文版好多了。
I wrote Difficult Choices to try to explain a puzzle about Taiwan’s political system. At least it is a puzzle to me. On the one hand, Taiwan’s democracy gets high marks around the world. Kharis Templeman of the Hoover Institution recently did an outstanding inventory of various aspects of Taiwan’s system: its political freedoms, free and fair elections, and so on. You can read his assessment in the Taiwan Journal of Democracy.
當初提筆撰寫《艱難的抉擇》一書，乃試圖解釋台灣政治制度的難題，至少對我來說是如此。一方面，台灣的民主制度在世界各地都獲致很高的評價，美國胡佛研究所的祁凱立最近對台灣政治制度的許多面向進行了精闢的盤點，包括了：政治自由、自由公平的選舉等，各位可以在《台灣民主季刊》上閱讀他的評估。
I am pleased, by the way, to spend a few days in a place like Taiwan where voters readily accept the results of their elections. In the United States, by contrast, nearly a third of Americans and about six out of ten Republicans believe, based on no credible evidence at all, that Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 presidential election.
我很高興能在選民願意接受選舉結果的地方，例如台灣，待上幾天。相較之下，美國近三分之一的選民以及約六成的共和黨員，就算提不出任何可信的證據，他們至今仍認為拜登沒有贏得2020年總統大選。
It’s also great to be in a country where citizens accept the peaceful transfer of power based on the results of an election and through established constitutional procedures. Sadly, I live in a country where some of the 2020 losers, apparently provoked by President Trump, seditiously plotted to block the procedures for the transfer of power mandated by the U.S. constitution.
一個國家的公民接受選舉結果，與接受合乎憲法程序的和平權力轉移，這是非常棒的事情。可悲的是，我所居住的國家裡，在2020年選舉中落選候選人的部分支持者，顯然是受到川普總統的挑撥，密謀煽動騷亂，阻礙了美國憲法規定的權力轉移程序。
In Taiwan, in contrast, some policy issues are handled smoothly, with little open political conflict. On the other hand, however, there are other issues on which debate is intense and the government is accused of doing a poor job. The contested issues include the economy, the aging society, inequality, energy security, and, most importantly, cross-Strait relations. Polarization about what to do is not uncommon. Moreover, we often see active minorities blocking policy initiatives that appear to have broad, public support.
相較之下，台灣部分政策問題可以順利處理，幾乎沒有公開的政治衝突。然而，也有其他問題引發了激烈的辯論，人民指控政府施政不當。爭議的問題包括經濟、社會老化、不均、能源安全，以及最重要的兩岸關係。對於如何處理這些問題所產生的意見分歧，是很常見的。更甚者，吾人經常看到積極的少數人阻礙了已獲廣泛民眾支持的政策倡議。
To put it simply, Taiwan’s democratic process appears to be better than the system’s policy performance.
簡單來說，台灣的民主程序似乎比政策成效更值得讚揚。
Let me be very clear. A simple yet significant reason for that performance is not as good as citizens would hope is that many of Taiwan’s policy problems are very difficult to solve. Let me repeat that. Many of Taiwan’s policy problems are very difficult to solve. These problems include, promoting economic growth, fostering social and economic equality, caring for a growing elderly population, and ensuring the island’s security. Any administration must address these all at once with limited resources. Would you want to have the burden of serving as the president of the Republic of China. Doing that job constantly requires making tradeoffs. Hence the title of my book, Difficult Choices.
讓我釐清一下。導致台灣的政策表現不如人民所冀望的簡單卻重要原因是，台灣許多的政策問題非常難以解決。我再重複一遍，台灣許多的政策問題非常難以解決。這些問題包括促進經濟增長、促進社會和經濟平等、關注日益增長的老年人口、以及確保台灣的安全。任何政府都必須在有限的資源下同時解決這些問題。你會想要接下中華民國總統肩上的重擔嗎？由於這份工作需要持續調和鼎鼐，因此，這就是我的書名由來：《艱難的決擇》。
But another reason is that Taiwan’s system of representative democracy is defective in certain respects, which also affects its performance.
但是，另一個原因也是台灣代議民主制度在某些方面存有缺陷，影響了成效。
Take energy policy for example:
就以能源政策為例：
▌Industry wants a stable and cheap supply of energy, whatever the source.
▌無論來源如何，工業界希望獲得穩定和廉價的能源供應。
▌The public understands that reducing the use of coal and oil will be good for the environment and public health, as well as contribute to the global fight against climate change.
▌大眾了解減少使用煤炭和石油對環境和公共衛生有益，也有助於全球因應氣候變遷。
▌Citizens also like air-conditioned comfort.
▌人民喜歡開冷氣的舒適感。
▌Electricity consumers like prices to be kept artificially low.
▌消費者希望保持低電費。
▌When natural gas is burned, the emissions it produces are a lot less harmful to the environment than coal or oil.
▌當燃燒天然氣時，所產生的碳排放對環境危害遠比使用煤炭或石油少得多。
▌Renewables like wind and solar hold a lot of potential for the future because they are clean.
▌風能和太陽能等再生能源具有很大的未來潛力，因為它們是乾淨的。
▌Nuclear power, which is a low source of carbon, has been a subject of political disagreement between the KMT and DPP for decades. When it is phased out in 2025, if it is phased out, the level of greenhouse gas emissions is liable to get worse.
▌核能是低碳源，自國民黨和民進黨間對核能發電存有政治分歧以來，數十年來始終是爭議的焦點。當核電在2025年被淘汰時，如果真有那麼一天，溫室氣體排放程度將會惡化。
But there are some problems. Natural gas, which is the center piece of President Tsai’s energy policy, does less damage to the environment after it is burned, but if it flows through leaky pipes until then, the damage is the same. I hope that the authorities are doing a good job to seal those pipelines. Also, civil society groups have opposed the Guantang receiving station in order to protect ancient coral and an array of other species.
但還是有些問題。天然氣是蔡總統能源政策的核心，燃燒後對環境造成的損害較少，可是假若經由漏氣的管線流失，對環境的損害是（與燒碳、使用石油）等量齊觀的。我希望有關單位能夠做好封堵這些管線的工作。同時，民間社會團體反對觀塘接收站，以保護古老的珊瑚和其他物種。
Renewables are important for the future, but the Council of Agriculture is blocking the building of efficient solar farms on idle farmland. Conservation groups worry about the future of species that live in salt marshes in the south if those areas become the site for large solar-energy farms.
再生能源對未來至關重要，但農委會阻止在閒置農地上建設高效太陽能農場。如果這些地區成為大型太陽能農場的場所，保育團體擔憂台灣南部鹽田中物種的未來。
Off-shore wind power is impeded by policies that require that some components and services be locally provided.
海上風力發電受到政策的阻礙，要求部分零件和服務必須在地提供。
Nuclear power, which is a low source of carbon, has been a subject of political disagreement between the KMT and DPP for decades. When it is phased out in 2025, the level of greenhouse gas emission is liable to get worse.
核能是低碳源，已成為國民黨和民進黨間長達數十年的政治分歧，當核電在2025年逐步淘汰時，溫室氣體排放程度將更加嚴重。
My point here is that the interaction of political forces has made it impossible to forge an optimal, balanced, and enduring policy consensus on energy. Some political forces block what they oppose but do nothing to help formulate a solution that is “good enough” for all concerned.
我的觀點是，政治力量的拉扯在能源問題上無法讓台灣內部形成最佳、平衡且持久的政策共識。政治力量極力阻止己身反對的事情，但卻無益制定利於所有人的解決方案。
Declining Globalization
The subject of this conference is declining globalization and I feel an obligation to make a few comments on the central theme of this conference. I do so with some trepidation, because I am not an economist and there are many excellent economists on the program. So, I will make my points briefly for you to take or leave as you wish.
逆全球化
本次會議的主題是逆全球化，我覺得有義務對此進行評論。其實有些惶恐，因為我並非經濟學家，許多優秀的經濟學家出席了這場論壇。因此，我簡要地講幾點供大家參考。
